Odds of Someone Having Same Name and Birthday

Statistically speaking there is a 27 chance of any to people having the same birthday. It is however such a rarity that we had trouble finding another couple with the same birthday for us to get their opinion on it.

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Which is kind of a neat result because if you have 30 people in a room you might say oh wow what are the odds that someone has the same birthday as someone else.

. You have a database of n name-birthdays all assumed to be equally likely and let us say distinct. 612 0111400 so 1-A is about 089. So the probability that no two people out of 23 share the same birthday is 04927.

And the probability for 23 people is about 50. The birthday paradox is a veridical paradox. A thousand random trials will be run and the results given.

Since there are 363 days still unused out of 365 we have p 363365 about. Ignoring leap years there are 365 days in a year so the probability a given person has the same birthday as you is 1365. What is the probability that her birthday is different from the other two.

The probability that at least two people out of 23 share the same birthday is 1 - 04927 05073. In a room of just 23 people theres a 50-50 chance of at least two people having the same birthday. This solution can be generalized for arbitrary number of people.

This means that any two people. That means 1 minus 029. So you might decide that the probability of having the same birthdate year month and day was 13000 and the probability of having the same name was 120000 so the probability of having the same name AND the same birthday would be 13000 times 140000 or 1120000000.

We can also simulate this using random numbers. So you are ascribing a non-zero probability to an impossible event. Try it yourself here use 30 and 365 and press Go.

If you want probability you need to divide that by the number of people in the UK. Odds of having same name same birthday as someone else. That gives 0000195 or 1 in 513757.

So the chances are n 36 million. If your library serves all of New York City and assuming everyone there has one of these 4025 names then there is a 1 in 4 chance of a single new patron matching your records. It appears wrong but is in fact true.

2 the probability that one or more pairs have the same birthday. F 1 1 p n 1 44 999 999 999 45 000 000 000 45 000 000 000 000 000 1 3 10 420000 1 100. Of the 620 people with the same name we expect that 620365 or approximately 17 people will have the same name and the same birthday as you.

So the probability for 30 people is about 70. The probability to get at least one pair is one minus the probability that you dont. While it may seem.

The probability that a person does not have the same birthday as another person is 364 divided by 365 because there are 364 days that are not a persons birthday. Which is approximately equal to 706. For any one relationship the odds of sharing the same month and day are approximately 1 in 365 not exactly because of leap year and because births are not exactly evenly spaced within a year.

But that a priori. For a first approximation we could take one fourth of the female first name probability add one fourth of the male first name probability and multiply the sum by the last name probability. Multiply those two and you have about 09973 as the probability that any two people have different birthdays or 109973 00027 as the probability that they have the same birthday.

Unfortunately yes there is flaw. If you have a name like Winsemius the odds are much greater against any. In probability theory the birthday problem asks for the probability that in a set of n randomly chosen people at least two will share a birthday.

According to your purported formula the probabilty of having two people with the same birthday when you only have n 1 person is. The birthday paradox is strange counter-intuitive and completely true. Its only a paradox because our brains cant handle the.

The chance of two randomly selected males having the same first name is 08080. So the probability that someone shares a birthday with someone else is 07063-- it keeps going. A 1212 1112.

In a group of 366 people theres 100 per cent probability that two people will have the same birthday because there are only 365 days in a year excluding leap year. Let A be the probability that everyone has a unique name. And the probability for 57 people is 99 almost certain Simulation.

Clearly therefore name and date of birth is far from satisfactory as a match criteria if we are dealing with anything other than common names. You stop when you find a proper pair. P n 1 p n p n 1 p n This calculation ignores the existence of leap years.

100 probability of getting at least one pair from USA of same name same date of birth and same gender. If you add in year its probably something like 1 in 3000 or 4000 most people have relationships with people relatively close in age. Put down the calculator and pitchfork I dont speak heresy.

B Now add a third person. Show activity on this post. P 1 1 364 365 1 1 364 365 1 365 0.

In a room of 75 theres a 999 chance of at least two people matching. The birthday paradox is that counterintuitively the probability of a shared birthday exceeds 50 in a group of only 23 people. Then 1-A is the probability that at least 2 people share the same name.

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